What's Going on with Ammo?

 

Site: SGAmmo.com

Introduction:

If you're into guns, and enjoy shooting them, then you know that ammunition prices have gone through the roof this year. Standard M193 ball 5.56 ammunition that could be found for around $0.23 a round in 2019, now can only be found at insane prices if it can be found at all. Shares of Vista Outdoors, the parent company of brands such as Federal Premium, CCI, and Bushnell, have quadrupled since the low point in March. What I want to try and do tonight is break down some of the reasons that the ammo supply has seemingly dried up and why shooters are stuck paying multiple times more than they did a year ago. There are a lot of things that play into this, but I want to try and look at some specific causes and the effects that they're having. 

Details:

One of the major reasons for the apparent ammo shortage is the fact that it's 2020. Not just because 2020 has been the most eventful year in recent memory, but also that 2020 is an election year with a very competitive election lined up. People involved in the firearms community have likely seen this on a smaller scale in the past. There is always uncertainty leading up to an election. Gun owners often stock up in some way leading up to an election because nobody knows how pro-gun or anti-gun the new president-elect is going to be. Things like guns, magazines and ammunition are often bought in droves leading up to the election, just not typically on the scale that we've seen it now.

Data: https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view

The scale of gun and ammunition purchases have gone through the roof largely as a combination of the mass civil unrest that the US has seen, on top of it being an election year. Americans in 2020 have purchased more guns than ever before, with over 10 million NCIS background checks performed in the last three months alone, and there just isn't enough ammo to go around. The civil unrest has created demand from both sides of the political aisle for guns and ammo. Both sides see there being potential danger on the horizon for different reasons. Both sides, however, see the rising instability in American cites, and they are taking their own precautions. Because of this, there is much more demand and strain on ammunition manufacturers than in a typical election year.

 It also doesn't help that civilians are not at the top of the priority list of ammunition manufacturers. Ammo plants have to work to fulfill military and police contracts before ammo gets onto the civilian market. Just at the end of July, Federal Premium delivered a 13.8 million dollar contract to the US Army for frangible ammunition, which has become popular among civilians for shooting at steel at short range. Speer was also recently awarded a 112 million dollar contract from the DHS to supply various DHS divisions with hollow point pistol ammunition. Military and Law Enforcement contracts take priority over civilian ones because they typically pay more, and there are possible national security implications. On top of this, foreign ammunition manufacturers have struggled in the US market because of the current pandemic. Supply lines to and from the US have been disrupted because of restrictions put forth by supplier countries.

The ammo shortage hasn't completely rid the market of all types of ammunition. The most popular calibers in the country, 5.56 and 9mm, are hard to find, but uncommon and foreign calibers like 7.62x39 or .40 S&W can still be found, albeit at higher prices than normal. This is why it pays to not completely standardize on one caliber for all your guns. I just recently picked up a .22 because I've still been able to find .22 ammunition in bulk for cheap.  

Conclusion:

I personally don't see the ammunition shortage getting better any time soon. With the election coming up and the cultural-political division only getting worse, I think that people are going to continue to buy up whatever ammunition they can reasonably get their hands one. I have continued to see increasingly inflammatory rhetoric from news outlets that have always tried to shy away from such things. Both sides see the United States as enthralled in a culture war that amounts to a cold civil war. Neither side sees the 2020 election as a unifying force for the country. For the first time in a generation, the future is not certain for the United States. The fear of this uncertainty has driven people inward, and I predict that they will continue to stockpile whatever supplies they see as being necessary in an uncertain future.